05/07/10

Objects in the rear mirror may be closer than they appear

One Monday afternoon sometime in 2001 I found myself sitting in a tracking study presentation in Waltham, Massachusetts.

The atmosphere was tense, as the researcher was about to reveal the latest twists and turns in the battle for top spot among internet ‘portals’.

Had Yahoo’s recent advertising burst paid off in terms of unaided awareness?
Would Alta Vista cement the gains in usage and preference posted in the previous quarter?
Might there be signs of a revival from Excite@Home?

The marketing team at my client, Lycos, was particularly on edge.

Through some pioneering search technology and the use in advertising of an animated black retriever as a metaphor for how it worked, Lycos had jumped out early in the Great Race.

Among the cognoscenti the whisper was that it was a much better search product than Yahoo! - and, that if it stuck to its guns, the world would soon see this too.

But the Lycos management had decided that there was no money in search - no, to appeal to advertisers one now had to be an online network, offering a range of specialist sites under a unified Lycos banner and encouraging surfers to dwell within its ‘gates’.

And as went search, so did the dog - despite his popularity among consumers, the luckless critter had been found unfit for new purpose, and dumped.

Would the data vindicate the decision?

Fortunately, it appeared that all broadly was well.
In terms of awareness and usage, Lycos had gained a couple of percentage points.
Excite and Yahoo! had traded a place or too here and there, while Alta Vista’s surge appeared to be stalling.
All told, it looked like business as usual among the heavyweights.

There was though just one more thing, the researcher said, to which he wished to bring our attention.

A new brand had appeared on the survey for the first time.
It had an odd name, but its last month usage was already at 5% and the signs were that it was growing fast.
Would the audience care to take a closer look at its numbers?

‘No, don’t bother’ came the reply.
‘It’s far too small.
Let’s stay focused on the big boys.’

In 2004, Lycos was sold on for $95.4 million - just 2% of what Telefonica had paid for it four years earlier.

God knows where Alta Vista or Excite might be now, but certainly nowhere that matters much.

And the new kid with the odd name?

Well, let’s put it this way - its share of global search is now a lot more than 5%…

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